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How important to wear masks
2020-07-13

We now know that wearing masks is very important for the prevention and isolation of corona-virus. It can more or less isolate the virus from the mask and protect people from the virus.
However, we study and calculate its social role, which will become more important than we think.
Using mathematical calculation of probability, if everyone wears kinds of masks, it will greatly reduce the transmission rate and speed of corona-virus.

A Simple mathematical probability modeling:

1.In social activities, assuming that both parties wear N95, theoretically their masks will have a filter rate of 95%.
If B is infected with coronavirus, his probability of transmitting coronavirus by breathing is 1-0.95.
So theoretically, the probability of  wearing N95 to get infected coronavirus from B is (1-0.95) * 0.05 = 0.0025 = 0.25%, which is a very low proportion.



2.Assuming that there is a gap when N95s are worn by both sides, or the filtration rate decreases to 90% after wearing for several days.
The theoretical probability of wearing mask to get infected coronavirus from B is (1-0.9) * 0.1 = 0.01 = 1%, which is still a very low proportion



3.Assuming that N95 worn by both parties is in a poor state, or wearing disposable medical masks, the filtration rate is reduced to 80%.
Theoretically, the probability of wearing mask to get infected coronavirus from B is (1-0.8) * 0.2 = 0.04 = 4%, which is still a  low proportion.

Assuming using the same type of masks, we get this formula:




So we get some infomation:


  1. If both A and B wear masks, it is mostly safe for each other;
  2. If one side dose not wear mask, it will be  more chance to infect each other.
  3. The quality and filtration of masks also important.
  4. It is very dangerous to contact with crowds did not wear masks.

The social function of masks

The social significance of masks is far more  greater than the meaning of  filtering figures: if masks are worn at work or in social activities, the transmission proportion of new coronavirus will be greatly reduced.

Technically, scientific and careful wearing, extensive use, hand washing and social isolation can effectively isolate corona-virus.

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